“Shootin’ The Bull”

End of Day Market Recap

by Christopher B. Swift

​4/21/2025

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Live Cattle:

My perception of the market differs from the first of April high to the end of April high.  That being, the first of April high was made with significant participation of commodity funds.  Funds have a lot of money, and can produce significant volume of trading, unlike individuals. The end of April rally came with no increase of participation by the funds, but there was little selling pressure on the market, due prices having dropped sharply the second week of April.  So, a combination of short covering, lack of desire to be short in a wide positive basis, and no participation by the funds leads me to believe that producers are long, are not short, and speculators are the ones holding long positions for which I do not believe have the wherewithal financially to build support under a market.  Long way around the barn to state that some producers are probably Texas hedged and some having thrown in the towel because they are attempting to trade the market instead of hedging the market.  Hindsight is believed to be hampering most for which "the" highest price is sought, simply to return input costs.  The aspects of too much production and processing capacity is being seen everywhere now, and every sector is already manipulating their production scheme in an attempt to keep the highest priced inventory in history from rolling backwards, what are you doing?  

Feeder Cattle:  

Futures traders apparently do not have the same gumption as a few cattlemen did last week to own again, the most expensive inventory in history.  The previous risks assumed have been jaw dropping, but last weeks abbreviated trading took the blue ribbon as someone wanted to remain in the cattle business so badly, they risked paying the highest price in history for that ability. This has no bearing on profitability or whether the price will go up or down, it is merely the best example I know of to date that says there is too much production capacity for the number of animals available.  Hence greater risks will be assumed for which not all will be able to take or manage. I anticipate that it will be difficult to manipulate production much more than has already been.  Everyone is growing what they have  bigger and that leaves volume producers out of the loop. Backgrounders have thrived off the endless inventory to put as little as 100# to as much as 400# and just keep turning them over.  That is not the case today and believe it will take a dramatic price move lower, and for some time, before expansion will ever be given a second look at before fall.  When or if expansion does begin, even fewer cattle will be made available to backgrounders, leaving a large void for a couple of more years for the backgrounding sectors.  All the while, the beef/dairy industry becomes more efficient at producing like quality inventory, and strengthening vertical lines of integration, keeping more cattle unavailable to the general cattle producing public. 

Corn:

Corn was soft with beans and wheat weak.  The firm trading in corn is expected to continue with over $5.00 per bushel in the July contract anticipated.  ​​

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Energy/Bonds:

Energy is lower to start the week.  I don't expect it to remain such. I recommend continuing to top off farm tanks and or book spring diesel usage.  This is a sales solicitation.  Bonds are lower because inflation continues.  As there is no commodity inflation, it will be anticipated to take much longer for taxes, insurance premiums, healthcare, retail goods, and services to subside in price. Sharply lower equity share prices today are reflecting similar sentiments.    

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 “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.